By Abraham Kenmore and Skylar Laird
COLUMBIA — For many South Carolina voters choosing who they want to challenge President Joe Biden, Nikki Haley’s six years as governor here factors far less into their decision than who she’s trying to topple.
Home state advantage melts away against former President Donald Trump. Three-fourths of South Carolina voters say it makes no difference at all that Haley’s from South Carolina, according to a recent CBS News Poll.
Other results of the poll suggest why: Four of every five people likely to vote in the GOP primary said Trump “fights for people” like them, compared to just over half believing Haley does. Three-fourths said Haley is not part of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. Voters’ answers also suggest Haley’s attacks on Trump may backfire among the MAGA faithful, with nearly two-thirds calling her criticism of Trump’s mental fitness unfair.
And despite her assertions that she’s more likely to beat Biden, most South Carolina voters still believe Trump has the better chance, according to the CBS poll of registered voters conducted between Feb. 5-10.
“(Voters) may have a candidate they really like, policies in the past they really respected, but no matter what that person says or does, they’re not Donald Trump,” said Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop Poll.
His latest poll, released last week, showed Haley trailing Trump by 36 percentage points among people likely to vote in the Feb. 24 contest that pits the former president against the former governor. It also showed that twice as many GOP voters view Haley unfavorably, compared to three months ago.
Huffmon thinks this is due more to her increasing attacks on Trump than on any baggage from her past — on the contrary, Haley has been consistently popular before her run for the Republican presidential nomination.
“Since she’s been out of office, her favorability in any poll we’ve done has been high among Republicans,” Huffmon said. “So, I don’t think anything from her past is inherently dragging her down.”
Not all voters in South Carolina, one of the nation’s fastest-growing states, remember Haley’s time as governor, which ended prematurely after Trump won the 2016 election and made her his first United Nations ambassador.
Some interviewed by the S.C. Daily Gazette still think she did well as governor. Others are more skeptical. But from Huffmon’s perspective, that skepticism is more recent.
“I think as this race is coming down to the wire, folks are looking for their own internal explanation for ‘why I am not supporting someone that I and my party have liked in the past,’” Huffmon said.
Some voters took issue with specific policies from Haley, such as a proposal to raise the age at which younger workers will be able to retire and collect their Social Security benefits.
But for many, the key differences are not in what the two candidates advocate. For example, for issues important for evangelical voters, who make up a large proportion of the Republican primary base, the two have very similar stances.
“In many ways, both candidates have similar views in standing up for and representing traditional values,” Jon Parker, executive director of South Carolina Faith and Freedom Coalition, told the Gazette. “Most of what I think your standard evangelical sees as different between the two is stylistic.”
‘Nikki Who?’
Kim Cessna, 58, of Mount Pleasant came to Trump’s North Charleston rally on Valentine’s Day with a sign reading “Nikki Who?”
The message, which Cessna said she wanted to put on a T-shirt but didn’t have the time, borrows from Haley’s own recounting of her underdog run for governor in 2010, when the then-House member largely unknown outside her Lexington-area district beat a congressman, state attorney general and lieutenant governor.
“I do like her, I do,” Cessna said of Haley. “We need to do what’s good for the party. I don’t think she’s offensive, but I think that she doesn’t have a clear path. She needs to stop, let it go, and then she can have next time.”
Cessna, a coordinator for a construction company, was also skeptical of where Haley is getting her donations. Haley has faced accusations from other Republican rivals that she is supported by wealthy, liberal Wall Street sources. Haley has countered that no one dictates policy to her.
Other supporters pointed to Trump’s experience in the White House in selecting him over Haley.
“I just think he’s got more experience, and he’s already done it before,” said Keith Painter, 51, an operating technician who came to the Conway rally from Sumter.
Standing in line for Trump’s rally in North Charleston, Cadie Limbaker said she was glad Haley ran and was proud to have two South Carolinians running for president — including Sen. Tim Scott of North Charleston who dropped out and endorsed Trump. But she is skeptical of Haley as a candidate.
Her companion in line, Sal Seria, a 23-year-old manufacturing technician, said Haley is “shady” and disliked her proposal to raise the retirement age starting with workers now in their 20s. Both traveled from Manning in rural Clarendon County for the rally.
Limbaker, who works in tech support and as a rancher, said she remembers Haley’s tenure as governor.
“She’s not as conservative as she puts on,” said the 28-year-old, who would’ve been in her teens for much of it.
“She changes her opinion too much, depending on who’s funding her,” Seria said.
It’s an answer that resonates criticism from Haley’s opponents, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis before he dropped out.
‘Kicking butt with high heels’
Many of Haley’s supporters appreciate her style as well as her track record as governor and ambassador. That includes her successful push in 2015 to remove the Confederate flag from Statehouse grounds following the massacre of nine worshippers at a historic Black church in Charleston.
“She did a great job for the state, and we’re looking forward to her kicking butt with high heels,” said Laura Dukes, a 62-year-old landscape architect who saw Haley in Newberry.
“I like her energy and her getting out there and sticking with it,” said Charlie Dukes, a 66-year-old retired mail carrier.
The Dukes, of Newberry, appreciated some of the things Trump had done but wanted a change. For other supporters, the fact Haley is not Trump is the most important thing about her campaign.
Michael Rose, 29, is a self-described moderate who said he supported Haley even when the primary field was more crowded.
“My primary motivation in this election, just like last election, is to beat Donald Trump,” he said at a Haley event in Elgin. “I hate that. I’d rather be focusing on policy and issues that matter to the American people, but it’s not going to happen.”
Rose is skeptical that Haley will do well in South Carolina, however.
“The question in my mind isn’t, ‘What do I think about South Carolina?’” he said. “It’s, ‘How does she still win despite South Carolina?’”
Huffmon, the pollster, said that for Haley a smaller-than-expected loss in the state where she was once CEO is as close to victory as she is likely to get — especially with little time left to turn things around.
“If she loses her home state by 30 points, that’s a very tough thing to take with you into the Super Tuesday states,” Huffmon said, referring to the March 5 contest in 15 states. “If she can claw back and still lose the state but not by nearly as much, that will almost be seen as an incredible comeback.”
Abraham Kenmore is a reporter covering elections, health care and more. He joins the S.C. Daily Gazette from The Augusta Chronicle, where he reported on Georgia legislators, military and housing issues.
Skylar Laird covers the South Carolina Legislature and criminal justice issues. Originally from Missouri, she previously worked for The Post and Courier’s Columbia bureau.
