Waiting for normal


These are not normal times investors are living in. The Fed has held short-term interest rates at zero for six years now, a policy experiment never seen before. This has many investors eager to see what happens if and when this returns to “normal.”

BUSINESS - RAYMOND JAMESOne of the biggest psychological challenges of investing is that there is always something out of the norm. I wonder at what point somebody would have described the times as normal. Take a look at the table below which highlights different periods in which investors had to live through and the extreme performances that accompanied them:

Understanding how different it always is should be a great reminder why no strategy will work in all market environments. Knowing the limitations to what you are doing- whatever you’re doing- is critical. The ability to stick with your plan during the bad times will determine if you’ll be around for the good ones.

So what is an investor to do? I see a couple options:

  1. Employ some form of static asset allocation and hope for the best. 25% fixed income, 25% US Equity, 25% International Equity, and 25% Alternatives and rebalance annually.
  2. Employ some type of forecasting to try to be opportunistic in asset
    class exposure
  3. Employ some form of trend-following tactical approach to asset allocation

The static allocation approach may ultimately perform okay over long periods of time, but will investors have the risk tolerance to continue with long stretches of an asset class being out of favor / going through severe drawdowns? Maybe? Maybe not. Chances are the forecasting approach will end very badly, as forecasting usually does. The third option makes much more sense to me. Simply systematically deal with trends as they unfold. This is the approach we use with our Global Macro separately managed account, which happens to be our most popular SMA strategy. Thank goodness we gave ourselves as much flexibility as we did with the way that this portfolio is constructed because this decade has been entirely different than the last decade. As one example, consider how well commodities performed in the last decade compared to the train wreck that they have been so far this decade.

Normal doesn’t exist. A disciplined way to be flexible is the key to successfully navigating the ever-changing financial landscape.

**This article was written by Dorsey Wright and Associates, Inc., and provided to you by Charles Tumlin, Managing Director, TLS Wealth Management of Raymond James.

Charles Tumlin is a Financial Advisor with Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC located at 2015 Boundary Street, Suite 220, Beaufort SC 29902. He can be contacted at 843-379-6100 or charles.tumlin@raymondjames.com .

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Raymond James is not affiliated with nor endorses the author or his firm. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable (“information providers”). However, such information has not been verified by Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC (collectively with its affiliates and parent company “DWA”) or the information provider and DWA and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. 

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