By Andy Brack
After 14 years of conservative control in Great Britain, British voters on July 4 threw out the Tories in a shellacking that was heard around the world. They elected a government that will be run by the Labour Party, which won 412 of 650 seats in the House of Commons – a net gain of 214 seats. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party lost 253 seats in a debacle that can only be described as politically cataclysmic.
Across the English Channel just days before, the moderate government of French President Emmanuel Macron faced a similar drubbing as the far-right National Rally party made big inroads in round one of the voting in France’s complicated national elections for its 577-seat National Assembly. Polling shows the far right and allies likely won’t be able to cobble together a ruling majority to replace a centrist government. But governing in France will face delays, stalls and quagmires over the next couple of years.
So Britain and France? Why do their elections matter here? Because they show one clear thing: voters wanted change. In Britain, they wanted to throw out 14 years of increasingly conservative rule in a country struggling with national health care, growth and immigration. In France, many voters wanted to show frustration with the status quo and concern over immigration, the economy and more.
Sound familiar? Yes, these elections might provide a kind of crystal ball about what could happen here in November. But that’s kind of complicated because just what is the definition of change for American voters?
On one hand, change could mean throwing out Democratic President Joe Biden in favor of former President Donald Trump. But is that real change just to go back to what we had before? On the other hand, change could mean toppling a Trump juggernaut toward authoritarianism to protect reliable democratic (small d) institutions. Remember, Britain went to the left and France hasn’t turned everything over to the right.
Deflate the debate
Biden certainly didn’t help himself in the recent Atlanta CNN debate with a lackluster performance against Trump. But don’t forget that Trump wasn’t that great either thanks to misstatements, lies and damned lies – CNN counted 30 in the 90-minute debate. (Biden had nine misleading and wrong statements.)
What’s interesting is that American conservatives have been mostly quiet about the whole thing – not wanting to draw attention to their own performance issues. Why? Because national Democrats are in a hot panic that’s clogging the media with too many calling for Biden to drop out – after just one lousy debate.
They need to settle down and realize that at this late date, there’s really not enough time to launch a replacement candidate who could take Trump on and win. As the New York Times’ Charles Blow recently noted, “This has become an election about people who are for democracy and those who are not for it. It has nothing to do with the individual people and the individual characters and their individual competency.”
Court on ballot
What many pundits also don’t seem to realize is that voters know the U.S. Supreme Court will also be on the ballot in November. The next president will have at least two appointments, which could tip the balance of the court to the center or left if Democrats the White House. And after months of scandal over acceptance of hundreds of thousands of dollars of unreported gifts by Justice Clarence Thomas and ethical issues related to other conservative justices, many people are understandably tired and frustrated over a high court that’s making lots of headlines for the wrong things. Throw on top of that the court’s overturning of the Roe v. Wade abortion decision, and you have a major driver for moderate voters to vote against Trump, regardless of an elderly Biden or any other candidate.
Democrats need to settle down and face the music that Biden’s their best chance to defeat Trump. And Republicans may want to strap in for what happens to voting if Trump, the convicted felon, gets his freedom taken away if a judge sentences him just weeks before the election to house confinement or worse.
The wild ride is getting wilder. Hold on.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send it to feedback@statehousereport.com.
