Yesterday ushered in the first day of fall and offered another reminder that summer is behind us as we are now full steam ahead towards the cooler weather. Traditionally, summer is a generally weak period for the market, and 2015 was no exception.
The Stock Traders Almanac offers a quotation that might best describe historic outcomes for this month: “September is when leaves and stocks tend to fall, on Wall Street it’s the worst month of all”. In fact, according to data compiled by the Almanac, the month of September is the worst month of the year for the S&P 500 (and the same can be said for most of the major indexes). The SPX has seen an average return of -0.49% for the month of September over the last 65 years. Although September is typically a poor month for investors, there are always exceptions, making this phenomenon just a tendency of the market; so, maybe this year will be different. While there were not many places to lose money during the 2012 and 2013 Septembers, 2014 saw the S&P 500 pullback -1.55%, and then of course there are years like 2002 and 2008, where there are practically no places to hide.
After a weak August, our analysis of market data indicates US stocks are very oversold. This could create an opportunity for anyone looking to invest some cash. Looking beyond September, our Relative Strength indicators currently point to US Stocks as the place to be for the longer term.
**This article was written by Dorsey Wright and Associates, Inc., and provided to you by Arthur Levin, Managing Director, TLS Wealth Management of Raymond James. Arthur Levin is a Financial Advisor with Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC located at 2015 Boundary Street, Suite 220, Beaufort SC 29902. He can be contacted at 843-379-6100 or email@example.com or visit our website at: www.tlswealthmanagement.com
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