By Scott Graber
When I came back to South Carolina in 1970 I returned to a political landscape I thought I understood.
Older white voters still had a fragile relationship with the Democratic Party that stretched back to Franklin Roosevelt. Black voters had a more stable relationship with the Democratic Party anchored in the fact that the (national) Democrats supported Civil Rights.
In those times, a statewide Democratic candidate (if he won the primary) would harvest all of the Black vote (about 25% of the total) and, say, 35% of the White vote.
This arithmetic would give that Democrat at least 51% of the total vote.
This formula elected Democrats like Ernest Hollings to the Senate; Mendel Rivers to the House; John West to the Governor’s Mansion; Jimmy Carter to the White House. Of course there was the renegade Republican, Strom Thurmond, who also got elected — the canary in the coal mine.
In those long gone days campaigning meant a “mailing” to the registered voters; maybe a little door to door activity to demonstrate one’s mobility (and humility); and then buying some print advertising the week before the election.
Often that message focused on seniority and featured a list — Naval Weapons Station, Charleston Air Force Base — of what Mendel Rivers had brought to South Carolina.
That began to change in 1975.
I was here in 1975 when Dr. James Edwards — a Charleston dentist — won the Governor’s Office and signaled that there was a Republican population that could be mobilized and could win a statewide election. In 1980, Tommy Hartnett (a Republican and a friend) took the 1st Congressional District seat from the Democrats. Thereafter the party of Roosevelt began to unravel retaining only one seat in the U.S. House — the 6th Congressional District.
For the last 50 years I have watched the Republicans reach out to Evangelical Christians and to the infamous “Joe Sixpack” first identified (as a possible voter) by South Carolina’s Lee Atwater.
Since that time the Republican Party has repeated and refined its approach to young men — often underemployed and these days angry — but nevertheless willing to fire up their Ford Mavericks making an election day run to their polling station.
Everyone on the planet now knows that Donald Trump went after these men with a precise strategy that he also crafted for Hispanics, Cubans, Asian Americans and yes, Black Americans.
“In last year’s Presidential election, Democrats lost support with nearly every kind of voter: rich, poor, white, Black, Asian American Hispanic. But the defection that alarmed Party strategists the most was that of young voters, especially young men, a group that Donald Trump lost by 15 points in 2020 and won by 14 points in 2024 — a nearly thirty point swing.” So writes Andrew Marantz in the March 24, 2025 New Yorker.
How did that happen?
The Harvard Business Review says that part of the reason for the thirty point swing is Trump’s so-called “Big Seed” marketing.
“Big Seed” marketing is sending out 19 million tweets to individuals on his Twitter account; to 18 million people on Facebook; and 5 million folks on Instagram.
Harvard’s Journal says that the content of these tweets was provocative, personal and raw. The business journal says the message itself was designed to make the recipient angry. It says that the “Big Seed” approach is a better bet than an individual tweet that goes “viral.” But the “Big Seed” approach is not the only vector; there is also the podcast which (mostly) comes over social media.
Here we have Trump — or a surrogate like J.D. Vance — sitting down with, say, Joe Rogan, and talking about the emasculation of men.
“Last month, Richard Reeves, was a guest on a popular podcast hosted by Theo Von, a formerly apolitical comedian who recently went to Trump’s Inauguration. Von, an infectiously affable guy with a mullet, presents himself as a curious goofball with essentially no prior knowledge on any topic. At one point he spoke — without much nuance but without apparent malice — about the plight of the white man. … ‘I’m not speaking against any other group,’ he said ‘I’m just saying. … you can’t make white males feel like they don’t exist.’”
These podcasts taken together with the “Big Seed” provocations explain the “thirty point swing.”
If Democrats intend to stay in the game they will have to find and fatten-up their own constituent voting blocks. Those blocks may be different from the previous mix. And they will need to understand the new delivery systems.
Scott Graber is a lawyer, novelist, veteran columnist and longtime resident of Port Royal. He can be reached at cscottgraber@gmail.com.
