By Andy Brack
Looks like four-term U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham has a pedigreed political challenger for the Republican primary in 2026, but he’s probably grinning privately because he may just have the perfect opponent.
Former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who’s been pretty quiet in politics for a few years, said he’ll challenge Graham next year for essentially not being conservative enough – even though President Donald Trump has already vigorously endorsed Graham and tasked an ally to run his campaign.
Graham, who criticized Trump when both were running for president in 2016, morphed into the lackey of lackeys when Trump won the nomination. Since then, there’s been a hot bromance that cooled some, but the relationship remains close, on the golf course and off.
So with Trump being the only real endorsement that matters in MAGA-fueled Republican politics, it’s kind of hard to see Bauer’s path to winning the GOP nomination.
Bauer, who served eight years as lieutenant governor, last was in elective politics in 2011. Since then, he’s flirted with running for various congressional seats and worked as a political commentator and real estate developer.
Now, he seems to be trying to out-Trump Graham as the America First candidate in the GOP primary. On his campaign website, Bauer, who didn’t return a phone call, touted himself as the “only America First candidate South Carolina can trust to stand with President Trump, take on the establishment, and put our values first.”
Winthrop University pollster Scott Huffmon explains there are three branches of the Republican Party these days and “most of the time, their behavior and preferences are utterly identical.”
First, there are the Make America Great Again acolytes who are fiercely loyal to Trump – and where the endorsement of Graham is a big deal. Then are the America Firsters, who may be disappointed with foreign entanglements that Graham has supported and who may be a little skeptical of Trump after he pushed the U.S. to participate in a limited bombing of Iran. Finally are more traditional Republicans who don’t particularly like Trump but wouldn’t vote for a Democrat until hell froze over.
In Bauer’s favor are lower-than-expected polling numbers in South Carolina for Graham. In May, some 40% of South Carolinians disapproved of how Graham was handling his job as senator. But when you pull out Democrats, that number dropped to 18% of Republican respondents. Fifty-five percent said they approved; 26% said they weren’t sure.
But even if Bauer were able to peel off some of the America First faction, getting to 50% in a primary could be kind of tough, and not only because Trump’s endorsement means something. There are two other things going on.
First, Graham has a significant cash-on-hand advantage with almost $16 million in the bank on March 31. He’s also a proven fund-raiser and will be able to get more cash if he needs it to be on the ballot in November 2026.
Second, Bauer has been out of the political eye for more than a dozen years – a long time in politics. During that time – and despite being an early supporter of Trump – he hasn’t been about to get a job in the Trump administration, even after browbeating friends in Washington. When Trump nominated Bauer in 2020 to be U.S. ambassador to Belize, he wasn’t able to get through the confirmation process.
So while it’s not going to be comfortable for Graham to spend a little cash to beat Bauer in the GOP primary, he’s probably grinning like a Cheshire cat because he’s got Trump’s endorsement, he can likely count on the MAGA wing of the party and he knows there’s something that kept Bauer from becoming an ambassador that could come out if politicking were to turn nasty.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of the Charleston City Paper and Statehouse Report. Have a comment? Send it to feedback@statehousereport.com.
